The 2026 Texas Senate primary has set up a high-stakes Republican runoff, as incumbent Sen. John Cornyn failed to secure enough votes to avoid a second round and will now face Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for the GOP nomination.
Under Texas election law, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote to win a party primary outright. With neither Cornyn nor Paxton reaching that threshold, Republican voters will decide the nominee in a runoff election.
On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Talarico clinched his party’s nomination, positioning him as the Democratic challenger in November’s general election.
About the Expected Vote
The “expected vote” represents an estimate of the total number of ballots projected to be cast in a race once all votes are fully counted. This estimate is based on multiple factors, including early voting turnout data and information provided by county election officials on Election Day. The projected total may be adjusted as additional data becomes available.
The Republican runoff will determine who advances to face Talarico in what is expected to be one of the most closely watched Senate contests of the 2026 election cycle.
